There is no doubt about it, the crypto asset class has been hit disproportionately hard in 2026 relative to other asset classes. Below is a table showing the decline in some leading crypto coins, October 9th, 25 to June 30th, 26. It’s there for all to see – this has been quite a sell off.
| Asset | Price – Oct 9,2025 | Price June 30 2026 | Performance |
| Bitcoin | $122,059 | $59,850 | -50.97% |
| Ethereum | $4,527 | $1,695 | -62.56% |
| Solana | $221 | $66 | -70.16% |
| XRP | $2.80 | $1.11 | -60.36% |
| Cardano | $0.81 | $0.155 | -80.86% |
| Litecoin | $118.64 | $40.05 | -66.24% |
| Dogecoin | $0.244 | $0.078 | -68.03 |
| Market Basket | Equally Weighted | -65.6% |
Some have even asked, “Is this the end of Cryptocurrency?” A valid enough question for the recent convert. But wait – for those of us who have been in Crypto for some time, haven’t we seen this all before – in fact, 4 previous times and how did that end each time? With the next big leg up.
Is Bitcoin finished? Since late January, in the same time that BTC (digital gold) has fallen 29%, Gold has also fallen 24%. That’s right – the safe haven has fallen almost as much as Bitcoin in 2026 and the reasons are very simple. The problem for both is the US Federal Bank stance, not Microstrategy selling or a lack of love for digital, the real story is that from Jan 30th when Kevin Warsh was appointed there was a systematic adjustment to the pricing of liquidity. The Fed reinforced a hard line at 2% inflation and wasn’t for shifting. That was the loud and clear message and institutions reacted accordingly. They sold risk on assets and bought T bills. Why wouldn’t they? And as I previously pointed out BTC is now owned 66% by Institutions, who took the safe option while war was in progress. In fact, other than its big run up its actually harder to understand why gold got hit so badly during that time and not why BTC was sold off.
However, for the same reason that crypto prices fell it will also have the opposite effect once a “version of peace” consolidates and the inflation target is met. That day is much closer than many people think. Currently, the 5 year break even inflation rate, which is priced by the bond market, is currently sitting at 2.21%, down from a peak in H1 of 2.71%. If the CPI data softens on July 14th or the following month due to lower oil prices, the target may well be met in the next 6 weeks. That, my friends, will see investors recognising the most oversold assets, that being Cryptocurrency.
So, for now, we may well see BTC break below $55,000 in the coming few weeks and we may have a few up and down days but soon the direction of travel will become clear to see in a cycle we have seen before. The last one was in 2022 and hey presto, there you have it: the 4 year BTC cycle returns. I may not predict this perfectly but my point is, this is all part of the cycle of this new asset. In previous articles I explained how the big jolts down were hard to predict as they were caused by Macro events but the same rules don’t apply to the upside. Timing the market is always a losing game but suffice to say anything around the $50K BTC and the corresponding lows for other coins looks an attractive time to be accumulating positions (not investing advice). That is of course, a purely personal call.
Despite the fact that we crypto asset managers have found it very hard to make alpha in the first 6 months of 2026 given the clear lack of direction within the market after 3 huge spikes downward, we remain confident that our best days are still ahead of us and we are ready and waiting to start the next leg of this exciting journey. It may be still 4-6 weeks away but in the end it won’t matter because very important things happen in the next leg up. This will look just like 2001-2003 with stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and others, post the Dot.com bust. Coins that have a purpose will flourish and those who are all just froth will go down the plug hole.
I will leave you to decide how you want to play this next leg. Ideally that would be with us earning good yield for the coins you own as their delta steadily climbs. For all those people who thought they had “missed the boat” back in October last year when BTC was $120K maybe you are getting another chance!
From a trading perspective we have navigated some of the heaviest storms seen in the space and true, we have recorded some trading losses along the way but single digit losses here and there compared to 65% price declines probably isn’t too bad and all the investors are now ready to take advantage of friendlier trading environments. Yes, its been a huge test but that is all part of being involved in finance and we are all better for the learning curve.
I have exciting news coming next week about a new structured product we have created for anyone holding or wishing to hold ETH, SOL or DOT. This new product produces, depending on the coin, between 6-10% annually with virtually no drawdowns and your coins remain in custody with you as the beneficial owner at all times, where you keep your exposure to the coin. It is unique to Algoz and something of which we are very proud. Look out for that announcement very shortly.
