There is no doubt November was an exciting month. Bitcoin soared 37%, XRP (Ripple) went parabolic moving from $0.50c at the start of the month to over $2.50 by month end. It was also a big month for Dot ($10.67), less so for Solana but they have had an amazing 3 months going from $126 up to $225, so holders won’t be too disappointed. 

It was also a big month for Algoz. We released our upgrades on all strategies on November 1st and against a strong trading background they all performed very well. More of that to follow. For now lets take a look at a few of the game changing events that moved the needle in November.

• Donald Trump wins the US election decisively and with it comes hope of a much fairer playing field for Crypto. It may not be that BTC becomes a reserve currency but the reality is that Gary Gensler has resigned as SEC chair. Preferred crypto choices could be Hester Peirce or Mark Uyeda both currently SEC Commissioners and pro crypto. Paul Atkins is also in the running. 
• It is also rumoured that Trump fancies the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to take the lead on crypto regulation, so they can move faster than the SEC. Either way, the landscape has changed and Trump wants to create a US Crypto powerhouse and that is most certainly driving market sentiment.
• It’s not all about the US though, the Ripple price is being driven by Korean retail traders. XRP is now Upbit exchanges most actively traded coin. In fact, in recent days Ripple has overtaken Solana as the number 3 coin by market cap. Investors are convinced that the Ripple infrastructure can challenge the SWIFT payment system to enable cross border transactions, more quickly, efficiently and cheaper. 
• There is a shortage of Bitcoin in the supply chain. Currently only three exchanges, Bitfinex, Binance and Coinbase have sufficient inventory to cover demand. Long term holders are holding firm.
• Traditionally December has seen an average 10% rise in BTC.
• Interestingly in US election years, which also coincides with BTC Halvings, returns for BTC in December have been 6% in 2012, 31% in 2016 and 47% in 2020. A considerable 28% average for those years. More to come? 
• The only negative we can see is that Trump has also pledged to do something about the significant deficit and the tax burden. Lowering both without reducing the money supply seems problematic so that could of course create a headwind later in the cycle but for now Q1 looks like being a similar story.

How did all this affect our strategies? The first thing to note is that we are not a BTC tracker. We systematically trade the top 30 coins. However, when volumes are strong, either bullish or bearish, we normally do well and November was no exception.

• Momentum has been the 2024 star, it added another 21.8% in the month to make it, up a staggering 60.5% year to date. The upgrades applied have also reduced the Max drawdown from 31.77% to 18.01% and the volatility from 51% to 33%.  (Tear attached)
• AiQP also performed well, 12.3% up and on course to hit its target for the year of 40% net of fees. The upgrades also reducing the Max dd from 18% down to just 13% in one instance with everything else below 10% and volatility reduced to just 22%. (Email for a copy of the tear sheet)

I emailed about the upgrades early last month and I am delighted to say they are working extremely well. All credit to our R&D team and our Head Trader, Tom Cohen. They sought an answer to the “choppy trading” patterns we have seen in 2024 and have created something very special.

We will also be releasing a new version of our Market Neutral during December. It will sit nicely as our “safety first” trading strategy, with drawdowns of less than 5%, 3+ Sharpe and annualised yields that average between 18-25%. We see this as the perfect starting point  for the many traditional finance investors who are looking at their first investment in the crypto space. When you combine this with our Zodia Custody, Quant Pro product, eliminating exchange and management counterparty risk, I am sure you can agree this is an exceptional product on a risk adjusted basis. 

The question I get asked most is what price will BTC be? Generally, as we are systematic traders, as a company we don’t really care. No-one knows with any certainty, although my friend Markus Thielen at 10X research has been right from 26K all the way up to almost 100K and he thinks 115K by Christmas is on. My answer to most has been the same for some time. There can only ever be 21 million Bitcoins. Only 8% of the world currently owns some version of a digital coin and BTC is at almost $100k  – what price will it be when 25% of the world own a digital coin? And it doesn’t matter if we get to 25% adoption next year, the year after or in 3 years, the path is now clear for anyone to see. So if you think now is the time to buy some BTC, then we would love to help you add a little to it with one of our risk adjusted strategies. 

There is a lot to talk about in Crypto at the moment. Not just our performance but the changing regulatory landscape (we have big news on that in January 25 as well) and of course this market. Please book a call with me to discuss any of the points I have raised or anything else you would like to know about Algoz or the market generally. I am very happy to talk.